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As the crowds poured into Bangkok's royal plaza last Saturday, Vasan Sitthiket was there again—just as he had been in May 1992, when people power rocked Thailand and ousted a government. Then, the target of the people's wrath was a military regime. Now it's Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, re-elected in a landslide victory just a year ago but vilified in recent months by many of Bangkok's residents. Demonstrations in the capital have become a weekly feature, led by a businessman-turned-political opponent of Thaksin, Sondhi Limthongkul, whose rallies draw tens of thousands. Vasan is a regular. An artist, he sketches caricatures of Thaksin as Hitler (sporting moustache and swastika) to hand out, and reads poems and sings songs to warm up the crowds before Sondhi takes to the stage. "I'm here to get Thaksin," Vasan, 48, growls. "He's ruining our country."

Some 400 km to the northeast, the story is rather different. In the dusty village of At Samart, Ouan Poysomboon, 73, recalls her recent encounter with the man who has led Thailand for the past five years. Earlier this month Thaksin camped out for a week in the area, bringing an entourage of officials and reporters to tape a reality-TV show. Grandma Ouan was selected for a personal audience with Thaksin. She says she told him how she struggled to survive on $5 a week while paying off debts of $5,000 incurred by her two sons, both of whom were killed in a Bangkok traffic accident: "I asked him, 'Can you help me repay? Can you help with my grandchildren's schooling?' He said he could." He also said he would give her a cow. A grin spreads across Ouan's weathered face. Thaksin is beautiful, she says. "I want him to be Prime Minister forever."

Thaksin, 56, elicits strong emotions. Among the urban élite of Bangkok—opposition politicians, academics and journalists—it's common to hear his administration accused of abuse of power, corruption and nepotism. But in the smaller cities and towns—and especially in the countryside—Thaksin remains hugely popular, seen as a decisive leader who cares about the poor. It was Grandma Ouan and millions like her who gave Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party that big win last year. Yet though the demonstrations are unlikely to bring Thaksin down, they could hobble his second term in office. Says Kasit Piromya, former Thai ambassador to the U.S.: "A leader has to lead a country. You can't lead if every week there's a protest." Here's a guide to Thailand's turbulence.

WHY IS THAKSIN UNDER FIRE?
When the Prime Minister first took office in 2001, Thailand was still struggling to overcome the Asian financial crisis. Thaksin boosted domestic demand with cheap loans and government handouts. By 2003, Thailand was leading the pack of Southeast Asian tigers. The same year, Thaksin declared war on Thailand's drug trade, cracking down on suppliers and small-time dealers. Over 2,500 of them died—killed, said government officials, by other criminals. (Human-rights groups claimed the killings were carried out by Thai security forces.) The campaign was welcomed by ordinary Thais fed up with the prevalence of drugs in their society. Then Thaksin won high marks for his leadership after the tsunami of Dec. 26, 2004, and for Thailand's efforts to control bird flu. Many Thais appreciate his style. "He's the only Prime Minister who goes to the slums to meet the people," says Thamniap Lekchai, a Bangkok taxi driver.

But some of the shine has gone off Thaksin's reputation. In the south, Muslim-majority provinces are wracked by ethnic conflict, violence that Thaksin's critics say has been exacerbated by his administration's heavy-handed military response to unrest, which won international notoriety when 78 people died in police custody after being arrested in Oct. 2004. Opponents condemn Thaksin's placement of relatives in key positions—his cousin, General Chaisit Shinawatra, was first made army chief and then the military's supreme commander, and his brother-in-law Priawpan Damapong serves as deputy chief of the national police. And long-running allegations of corruption in a contract to supply baggage scanners at Bangkok's new airport continue to haunt the government. The then transportation minister, Suriya Jungrungreangkit (who now holds the industry portfolio), denied any impropriety by officials.

The latest allegations, however, may prove to be the most damaging of all. They focus on the sale by Thaksin's family of their controlling stake in telecoms conglomerate Shin Corp. for $1.87 billion. The stake is being sold to a group led by the Singapore government's investment arm, Temasek Holdings. Thai regulators probed the deal for any violations, including possible insider trading. On the eve of the sale, Thaksin's son and daughter bought an 11% stake in Shin from an offshore company called Ample Rich for one baht (2.5 cents) a share, then sold to the Temasek-led group for nearly 50 times that. The authorities ruled that the deal was legitimate since Thaksin's children themselves owned Ample Rich, but said it was possible Thaksin's son, Phantongtae, had not properly disclosed his stake in the offshore firm. For that, Phantongtae may yet be fined. Though Thaksin himself is in the clear, the sale has upset many Thais because a major utility is now controlled by a foreign entity. There's resentment too, at the huge windfall reaped by Thaksin's family. The Prime Minister says Shin was sold because "the kids would like their dad to devote himself completely to politics." Still, says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, "the Shin deal could become a tipping point. It's become the focal point that could bring [Thaksin] down." Certainly, the sale to Temasek has helped build the crowds at Sondhi's rallies.

WHO IS SONDHI LIMTHONGKUL?
When Thaksin's key opponent gets a call on his mobile phone there is no chirrup of birdsong or snatch of the William Tell Overture. Instead the phone emits a recording of his own voice shrieking, "Thaksin! Get Out!" Sondhi, 58, is a former media mogul who was hammered during the Asian financial crisis but managed to claw his way back into the black with help from a fellow magnate: ironically, Thaksin himself.

During the early 1990s Sondhi's Manager Media Group owned an assortment of magazines, newspapers and satellite channels. In Bangkok and other Asian cities, Sondhi was a fixture on the social circuit. "I was a very arrogant young man at that time," he recalls. In Bangkok, he met another upcoming media tycoon. Thaksin and he "were never friends, only acquaintances," Sondhi insists. But soon they were doing business together. In 1992, Thaksin invested in the share offering of IEC, a mobile-phone handset distributor that Sondhi had bought and which sold handsets to Shin subsidiary AIS.

In 1997, when the financial crisis hit Asia, Sondhi came down to earth. His media group crumpled, and by 2000 he was declared bankrupt. The following year, however, Sondhi's fortunes revived. His group was still in the hands of creditors, but he started new companies that won contracts to produce prime-time shows on state-owned television. State-owned lender Krung Thai Bank backed him, and Sondhi eulogized Thaksin's leadership and economic prowess—something that he now says was an error.

It's not clear why the two men fell out, but last September a talk show co-hosted by Sondhi was canceled by state television after he accused Thaksin of abusing his power. Sondhi began staging weekly outdoor shows, drawing tens of thousands to a park in Bangkok after work on Fridays. He aired allegations of corruption against Thaksin and his family, sparking criminal and civil lawsuits from the Prime Minister. But the suits were dropped after Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej said in an annual televised birthday speech on Dec. 4 that government officials should not over-react to criticism or consult lawyers too quickly. Said the King: "Lawyers tell the PM to sue, to punish ... Do not punish. Punishment is not good."

Sondhi now seems to have just one aim in life: to topple Thaksin. He says he will move beyond street protests to building a "grand coalition" with academics and other activists. "This has become a national agenda," he told TIME. In his weekly radio address on Feb. 4, the Prime Minister said Sondhi was taking him on for personal reasons because he refused to help Sondhi out in a business venture. Sondhi fires back: "I'm doing this for principle ... [Thaksin] has betrayed the people's trust."

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
The Prime Minister says he will resign only if the King wishes it, and such a royal intervention in politics is extremely unlikely. Bangkok will probably see more street protests, but, says James Klein, country representative of the Asia Foundation in Thailand, "I don't think this is going to get out of hand."

It's always possible that Thaksin could call fresh elections and seek a new mandate. Indeed, in a Feb. 9 speech to the National Economic Social Advisory Council, he sounded as if he were campaigning: "My policies have made the economy grow, I have made drug offenses drop," he said, "and I will eradicate poverty within the next three years." And if he did call a snap election, Thaksin is assured of at least one vote. Back in At Samart, Grandma Ouan tells a reporter that the cow Thaksin promised still hasn't showed up. As if on cue, a motorcycle roars up to her modest wooden house. On the bike is a young veterinarian from the Ministry of Agriculture with papers for Ouan to sign so he can bring her the cow. She won't actually own the animal; the government is lending it to her for five years. But she can keep any calves. What does Grandma Ouan think of those who want to throw Thaksin out? She clucks her tongue and shakes her head. "I won't let them do it," she says.

• Simon Elegant
• Though élites in Bangkok are angry with Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, support in the countryside means he's unlikely to lose power anytime soon